Article Synopsis |  | Risk factors for chronic disease in the elderly have received increased attention in past prospective population studies, with some emphasising socio-demographic predictors, and others emphasising clinical predictors. The US National Institute of Ageing’s ‘Established Populations for Epidemiologic studies of the Elderly’ (EPESE) represents an integrated approach which has a stronger probability of finding the best set of predictors of mortality. A similar integrated approach was used in the prospective Dubbo study.
The purpose of this report is to examine clinical and socio-demographic predictors of all causes of mortality in the Dubbo study over an average of 62 months follow-up. Risk factors were analysed in a model which controlled for socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics.
In the study, 235 men (19 per cent) and 184 women (12 per cent) died, with 46 per cent of male deaths and 53 per cent of female deaths related to cardiovascular disease. Using a proportional hazard model, the study found significant predictors of mortality for men were older age, being married, smoking, drinking more than three alcoholic drinks per day, prior coronary heart disease, diabetes, use of anti-hypertensive medication and physical disability. For women, the significant predictors of mortality were older age, being married, sever hypertension, and poor to fair self-rated health.
High blood pressure also predicted mortality in people below 75 years, whereas lower blood pressure was associated with an increased risk of mortality in people over 75. |